China's coal generation could exceed global limit threefold over continued capacity hikes

Industry groups proposed to raise the nation’s coal power cap to 1,200-1,400GW.

China alone could generate over three times as much as the global limit on coal power by the United Nations (UN) if it continues to hike its coal power capacity through 2035, according to a report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

Its analysis found that the country needs to nearly halve its coal capacity to 600GW by 2030 to meet the required 58-70% cut in coal power generation to keep global warming “well below” 2°C, based on findings from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

However, industry groups have proposed raising the country’s coal power cap from the current 1,100GW for its 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for 2021 to 2025 as well as the industry infrastructure plan through 2035, reportedly to maintain grid stability or meet demand.

The State Grid Energy Research Institute, under a state-owned electric utility, projected that the nation needed 1,200GW by 2030. The China Electricity Council, the country’s power industry body, even suggested 1,300GW. In addition The Electric Power Planning and Design Institute, part of a state-owned powerco, recommended 1,400GW by 2035.

The growth in coal plants was found likely, with the National Energy Commission, the highest energy decision-making body directed by Premier Li Keqiang, said that China should continue the development of “clean and efficient” coal power over the 14th FYP.

In addition, the nation has 195.6GW of total coal capacity under development as of July, with 121.3GW under construction and 26.4GW under suspension but found likely to be revived based on trends and analysis of satellite photos and permits.

This was attributed to looser restrictions after a permitting surge in 2014 to 2016, with almost half of the 169.5GW worth of coal power projects restricted in 2017 now advancing.

As of July, China’s coal power capacity stood at 1,027GW. It added 42.9GW between 2018 to June 2019, despite the rest of the world slashing its capacity by 8.1 GW at the same time.