China to achieve solar and wind energy goal ahead of 2030 target

Solar and wind energy capacity is seen to exceed the 1,200 GW target next year.

China may be ahead of its schedule as it is seen to reach a solar and wind energy capacity of 1,720 gigawatts (GW) by 2025, exceeding the 2030 target by more than 500 GW, according to a GlobalData report.

GlobalData noted China’s solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity reached 609.5 GW in 2023, while its onshore and offshore wind capacity stood at 408.1 GW and 37.7 GW, respectively. 

“The country is on track to surpass its 2030 target by a significant margin, achieving this milestone five years ahead of schedule in 2025. By that year, it is anticipated that the cumulative capacity of solar PV, onshore wind, and offshore wind will reach 1,104.6 GW, 560.8 GW, and 54.7 GW, respectively,” it explained. 

In its report “China Power Market Size, Trends, Regulations, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2024-2035,” GlobalData said financial incentives and policy support are among the primary drivers that helped China advance its energy targets. 

Solar PV power will remain to be the dominant source of renewable power until 2035, it added.

Despite this development, GlobalData Power Analyst Sudeshna Sarmah said China continues to depend heavily on thermal power, which presents two challenges. 

“First, pollution from coal-based generation has contributed to making China’s cities some of the most polluted globally. Second, domestic coal production is declining, even as the demand for power increases,” Sarmah said. 

Beijing is addressing these by enhancing renewable energy generation. However, the problem of insufficient grid infrastructure rises. 

Whilst significant investment will be needed, it will be crucial for China to develop new transmission lines and a comprehensive smart grid network capable of reconciling the variable nature of renewable energy supply with consumer demand, GlobalData said.

“Transitioning to a decentralised approach may supplant the existing centralised planning process, fostering more nimble decision-making. It is imperative that the government give precedence to the development of grid infrastructure and the advancement of energy storage systems, with the objective of gradually diminishing its dependence on thermal power,” Sarmah said.