Renewable electricity generation to soar over three-fold by 2040

Hydropower to keep on rapidly rushing in.

The International Energy Agency recently released the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2015 and revealed that Southeast Asia’s energy demand grows by 80% from today to just under 1 100 Mtoe in 2040, accompanying a regional economy that more than triples in size and a population that rises by almost a quarter to 760 million. 

"In our central scenario, oil demand rises from 4.7 mb/d in 2014 to 6.8 mb/d in 2040, while natural gas use grows by almost two-thirds to around 265 bcm, mainly due to increased industrial demand," IEA's report said.

Coal demand expands at the fastest rate among all energy sources and reaches 440 Mtce in 2040, a level comparable to coal use in India today.

By the end of the projection period, coal overtakes oil to become the largest fuel in the energy mix. Modern renewables – including hydro, geothermal, wind and solar – make inroads in the region’s energy mix but the overall contribution of renewables declines from 26% to 21% due to the decreasing traditional use of biomass.

Here's more from IEA's Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2015:

The share of fossil fuels in the energy mix rises from 74% in 2013 to 78% in 2040. The power sector shapes the energy outlook for Southeast Asia as electricity demand almost triples by 2040, with the shift towards coal set to continue.

To meet the increase in demand, 400 GW of power generation capacity – roughly equal to the combined installed capacity of Japan and Korea today – is added across the region between today and 2040, of which 40% is coal-fired. The share of coal in power generation rises from 32% to 50%, contrary to the trend seen in most other parts of the world, while that of natural gas declines from 44% to 26%.

The rise in coal use is underpinned by economic factors, abundant supplies and the need for rapid electrification, but also highlights the need to accelerate the deployment of more efficient technologies to address the rise in local
pollution and CO2 emissions.

There remains significant potential for deploying more efficient coal-fired power plants: while the average efficiency of Southeast Asia’s coal-fired power plants increases by more than five percentage points over the projection period, by 2040, subcritical technologies still comprise over 50% of total coal-fired installed capacity in the region.

Renewables-based electricity generation increases three and half times from today to 2040, due to the steady rise in hydropower and the rapid expansion of modern renewables.