Chinese wind power market predicted to shrink in the short term

Capacity additions will just creep up from then on.

2016 is expected to be a record year for China's wind power market, but things will slightly go awry moving forward. Combined onshore and offshore new installed wind capacity is forecast to drop to 20GW by 2017 from 24GW by end-2016. This number is bound to slowly creep up by just 2GW to 22GW come 2019 and another 2 to 24GW by 2020.

This is a far cry from China's stellar surge in 2014 when wind capacity additions easily breezed to almost 24GW from 2013's ~16GW.

According to Yoshinori Ueda, general manager at Japan Wind Power Association, the rush to capitalize the higher onshore feed-in-tariff by the end of 2015 will make 2016 another record year in terms of new installations.

"Assuming new grid-connected wind power in 2015 will reach 22GW, total unconnected wind power capacity will increase to 23.2GW by the end of this year," Ueda said in a talk at the World Smart Energy Week 2016.

From 2016 onward, the pressure on the grid operators will be gradually eased as some of the 12 long distance HVDC and HVAC transmission lines inclluded in the Work Plan for Prevention of Air Pollution will be put into service in 2016.

The forecast for the Chinese wind market for 2016 was upgraded from 20GW to 24GW since the 5th batch of projects under the 12th five-year plan, totalling 34GW, was approved by NEA to provide clear visibility for 2016-17.

The annual installation is likely to fall from 2015, but the planned national emission trading system starting in 2017 might boost further growth.

The draft version of the 13th 5-year plan indicates a 25-40% upgrade from the original 2020 target of having 200GW wind power.

That is, on average, 22.5 GW of new capacity is needed to achieve the 250GW target. The World Smart Energy Week is happening from today until March 4, 2016 at Tokyo, Japan. The event gathers renowned experts of the smart and renewable energy business fields from across Japan and the world who will share the latest technology and industry trends.

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