This chart is proof that Japan's renewables expansion is slowing down
Growth is predicted to slacken to just 6.9% by 2020.
Japan will maintain its position as a renewables outperformer in the Asia region over the next decade - in terms of installed renewables capacity, but its importance will lessen as the country's renewables expansion slows. Weakening government support, cheaper alternatives and electricity sector reform will all contribute to the slowdown in growth in the sector.
Japan's position as a regional renewables heavyweight will lessen over our 10-year forecast period to 2025, as the country shifts from being the second largest renewables market (in terms of total installed non-hydro renewables capacity) to the third.
Here's more from BMI Research:
We forecast non-hydro renewables capacity to total 65.8GW by 2025, up from a current installed capacity base of 40.8GW in 2015. This marks a slowdown in growth from historic levels, where annual average growth registered 40.3% between 2011 and 2015 - compared with our forecast of 6.9% between 2016 and 2020.
The rapid expansion of the renewables industry witnessed over the previous five years can be attributed to the government's strong support for the sector.
Specifically, in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster - which resulted in the shutting off of nuclear power across the country - the government offered attractive financial incentives to renewables developers (notably solar) in an attempt to bridge the generation gap left from the lack of nuclear output.
However, we note that several dynamics have shifted in the Japanese power sector since then - such as weakening government support, cheaper fuel alternatives and electricity sector reform - which are all contributed to the slowdown in growth in the sector.
Difficulties with integrating an influx of renewables generation into the national grid system and the costs associated with supporting subsidies for the renewables sector has led to renewables policy slippage from the Japanese government over the past year. This has materialised in cuts to feed-in tariffs for solar power and a renewed focus on bringing nuclear projects back online.